Newcastle United vs Arsenal

Premier League

3-3-4

Sat, Nov 21, 12:30 PM ET

9-0-1

St. James' Park

Who wins: Arsenal 53%

The Chirp Sim played this game 10,000 times. Arsenal won 53% of them. A draw in 27%. The most likely final: Arsenal 1, Newcastle 0. See the full Sim

Arsenal has won 5 straight.

10,000 simulated matches

20%

NEW win

27%

Draw

53%

ARS win

Expected goals

NEW 0.91, ARS 1.67

Most likely

1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%)

Both score

49%

3+ goals

46%

Likely scorers	Goal	Shots	On target	Assist
ARSNoni Madueke	23%	1.9	0.7	0.08
NEWHarvey Barnes	17%	1.4	0.5	0.09
ARSKai Havertz	16%	1.0	0.3	0.10
ARSMartin Ødegaard	15%	1.2	0.4	0.13
ARSViktor Gyökeres	15%	0.9	0.3	0.07
NEWWilliam Osula	13%	0.8	0.3	0.04
ARSEberechi Eze	13%	1.2	0.3	0.02
ARSBruno Guimarães	13%	0.9	0.3	0.07

Attack and defense ratings for every club from its matches in every competition, goals credited by minutes and threat, 10,000 times.

The Sim

Cheat sheet

Player	Stat	His usual	Sim projects	Chance he gets there	Did it, last 10
William OsulaNEW vs ARS · Sat 12:30 PM	Shots	1+	0.8	54%	8 of 10
Eberechi EzeARS @ NEW · Sat 12:30 PM	Shots	2+	1.2	41%	4 of 10
Declan RiceARS @ NEW · Sat 12:30 PM	Shots	1+	1	57%	7 of 10
Gabriel MagalhãesARS @ NEW · Sat 12:30 PM	Shots	1+	0.8	53%	6 of 10