NFL player projections
Each game simulated 10,000 times. A player's line is the number he went over in about half of his last 20 games.
Where the sim and his last 10 games agree, strongest first.
| Player | Stat | Line | Sim | Gap | Sim says | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler ShoughNO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM | Completions | 22.5 | 26.4 | +3.9 | Over 65% | 7/10 | |
| Jake FergusonDAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.8 | -0.7 | Under 60% | 1/10 | |
| Derrick HenryBAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 19.5 | 24.3 | +4.8 | Over 70% | 6/10 | |
| Olamide ZaccheausATL vs SF · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 | Under 62% | 2/10 | |
| Jared GoffDET vs GB · Sun 4:25 PM | Completions | 23.5 | 25.8 | +2.3 | Over 58% | 8/10 | |
| Daniel JonesIND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 3.5 | 2.7 | -0.8 | Under 62% | 2/10 | |
| Jordan LoveGB @ DET · Sun 4:25 PM | Completions | 20.5 | 23.6 | +3.1 | Over 63% | 7/10 | |
| Alvin KamaraNO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.7 | -0.8 | Under 62% | 2/10 | |
| Bo NixDEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM | Carries | 3.5 | 4.2 | +0.7 | Over 55% | 8/10 | |
| Mitchell EvansCAR vs TB · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.2 | -0.3 | Under 59% | 2/10 | |
| Chase BrownCIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 12.5 | 14.2 | +1.7 | Over 58% | 7/10 | |
| Christian McCaffreySF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 15.5 | 14.1 | -1.4 | Under 58% | 2/10 | |
| Brock PurdySF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 4.5 | 5.5 | +1.0 | Over 58% | 7/10 | |
| Christian McCaffreySF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM | Touchdowns | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 | Under 63% | 3/10 | |
| Will ShipleyPHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM | Receptions | 0.5 | 1 | +0.5 | Over 56% | 7/10 | |
| Courtland SuttonDEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.1 | -0.4 | Under 57% | 2/10 | |
| Tre TuckerLV vs LAR · Sun 4:25 PM | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.2 | +0.7 | Over 56% | 7/10 | |
| Tyler BadieDEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM | Receptions | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 | Under 62% | 3/10 | |
| Chris OlaveNO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM | Receptions | 6.5 | 8 | +1.5 | Over 60% | 6/10 | |
| Brock PurdySF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM | Passing TDs | 2.5 | 1.9 | -0.6 | Under 60% | 3/10 | |
| Keenan AllenIND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 4.5 | 5.2 | +0.7 | Over 55% | 7/10 | |
| Sam LaPortaDET vs GB · Sun 4:25 PM | Receptions | 5.5 | 4.6 | -0.9 | Under 59% | 3/10 | |
| Cam WardTEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM | Passing TDs | 0.5 | 0.9 | +0.4 | Over 54% | 7/10 | |
| Chris Godwin Jr.TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.9 | -0.6 | Under 58% | 3/10 | |
| Tyler WarrenIND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 4.5 | 5.6 | +1.1 | Over 59% | 6/10 | |
| Jordan LoveGB @ DET · Sun 4:25 PM | Carries | 2.5 | 2.1 | -0.4 | Under 58% | 3/10 | |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM | Carries | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 | Over 58% | 6/10 | |
| Daniel BellingerTEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 | Under 62% | 4/10 | |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs GB · Sun 4:25 PM | Receptions | 7.5 | 8.5 | +1.0 | Over 56% | 6/10 | |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 14.5 | 12.5 | -2.0 | Under 62% | 4/10 | |
| Puka NacuaLAR @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM | Receptions | 7.5 | 8.5 | +1.0 | Over 56% | 6/10 | |
| Bo NixDEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM | Completions | 22.5 | 19.8 | -2.7 | Under 62% | 4/10 | |
| George KittleSF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM | Touchdowns | 0.5 | 0.9 | +0.4 | Over 55% | 6/10 | |
| Tyjae SpearsTEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 3.5 | 3.1 | -0.4 | Under 57% | 3/10 | |
| Jonathan TaylorIND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 2.5 | 3 | +0.5 | Over 54% | 6/10 | |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 5.5 | 4.5 | -1.0 | Under 61% | 4/10 | |
| Ashton JeantyLV vs LAR · Sun 4:25 PM | Carries | 15.5 | 16.4 | +0.9 | Over 54% | 6/10 | |
| Blake CorumLAR @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM | Carries | 9.5 | 8.2 | -1.3 | Under 60% | 4/10 | |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM | Touchdowns | 0.5 | 0.9 | +0.4 | Over 54% | 6/10 | |
| Nico CollinsHOU vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.8 | -0.7 | Under 59% | 4/10 | |
| Matthew StaffordLAR @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM | Carries | 1.5 | 1.9 | +0.4 | Over 54% | 6/10 | |
| Drew SampleCIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.2 | -0.3 | Under 58% | 4/10 | |
| Jaylen WarrenPIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM | Carries | 13.5 | 14.2 | +0.7 | Over 53% | 6/10 | |
| George KittleSF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM | Receptions | 4.5 | 5.1 | +0.6 | Over 53% | 6/10 | |
| Kyler MurrayMIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM | Carries | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 | Over 53% | 6/10 |
Updated Wed 1:30 AM ET. 14 games.