UMBC Retrievers vs Towson Tigers, 410 Invitational Championship

College Basketball

UMBC

2-2

Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET

Towson

2-2

SECU Arena

Who wins: Towson 66%

The Chirp Sim played this game 10,000 times. Towson won 66% of them. The most likely final: Towson 74, UMBC 68. See the full Sim

Who wins?

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UMBC 0-2 on the road; Towson 2-0 at home.

Preview · 2d ago

Towson hosts UMBC after Roseborough's 24-point outing

Recap · 2d ago

Devin Ceaser scores 21, UMBC wins 85-70 against Morgan State

Recap · 2d ago

Roseborough scores 24, Towson beats Loyola Maryland 90-60

Chirp Sim

10,000 simulated games

34%

UMBC win

66%

TOW win

Typical final

UMBC 68, TOW 74

Combined points

142

Spread and total: game

UMBC +12.556%44%TOW -12.5

UMBC +11.552%49%TOW -11.5

UMBC +10.547%53%TOW -10.5

UMBC +9.543%57%TOW -9.5

UMBC +8.540%61%TOW -8.5

O 140.559%41%U 140.5

O 142.554%46%U 142.5

O 144.549%51%U 144.5

O 146.543%57%U 146.5

O 148.538%62%U 148.5

1st half (score at halftime)

UMBC +7.559%41%TOW -7.5

UMBC +6.555%45%TOW -6.5

UMBC +5.552%48%TOW -5.5

UMBC +4.548%52%TOW -4.5

UMBC +3.544%56%TOW -3.5

O 68.569%31%U 68.5

O 70.561%39%U 70.5

O 72.554%46%U 72.5

O 74.545%55%U 74.5

O 76.537%63%U 76.5

Centered on the market line (shaded), shaped by 10,000 simulated games.

Players to watch	PTS	REB	AST	Chance
UMBCDevin Ceaser	15.3	3.9	1.1	15+ 53%
TOWZion Stanford	13.8	5.3	0.7	15+ 43%
TOWBen Roseborough	13.6	1.5	2.6	15+ 41%
TOWJaquan Womack	12.2	6.5	1.0	15+ 31%
UMBCFlash Burton	10.8	2.8	2.5	10+ 58%
UMBCAidan Able	10.4	3.1	2.7	10+ 54%

UMBC simulated box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FT
Flash Burton	28	10.8	2.8	2.5	1.5	0.3	2.9	4.2-10.5	1.1-3.7	1.3-1.8
Devin Ceaser	28	15.3	3.9	1.1	0.7	0.0	2.1	5.6-13.7	1.7-5.9	2.5-3.3
Aidan Able	27	10.4	3.1	2.7	0.7	0.0	1.1	4.1-10.5	1.8-6.0	0.4-0.6
Jovan Ristic	25	5.7	7.0	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.4	2.2-5.2	0.5-1.7	0.8-1.1
Riley Jacobs	24	8.0	5.2	2.2	1.8	1.7	2.4	2.7-6.0	0.4-1.5	2.1-2.9
Carlos Varela	23	4.4	2.8	1.8	1.2	0.5	2.0	1.4-3.4	0.6-1.8	1.1-1.5
JP Ndong	14	3.5	0.9	0.8	1.0	0.0	0.9	1.2-3.1	0.5-1.8	0.5-0.8
Steven Huan	11	3.8	2.2	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.3	1.3-2.9	0.2-0.9	1.0-1.4
Evan Morton	8	2.6	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.3	1.1-2.5	0.3-1.1	0.1-0.2
Jaiden Reynolds	6	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.9-2.3	0.3-1.2	0.3-0.3
Alpha Barry	5	1.4	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.5	0.5	0.5-1.1	0.1-0.4	0.3-0.4
Team	200	68.3	31.9	13.3	7.5	3.6	13.3	25.2-61.2	7.5-26.0	10.4-14.3

Towson simulated box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FT
Zion Stanford	30	13.8	5.3	0.7	2.3	0.3	3.3	5.2-12.1	1.5-4.4	2.0-2.8
Jaquan Womack	30	12.2	6.5	1.0	0.8	0.2	1.6	4.5-10.4	1.2-3.7	1.9-3.0
Ben Roseborough	28	13.6	1.5	2.6	0.4	0.0	1.3	4.9-11.5	1.8-5.6	2.0-2.9
Christian Doerr	28	9.1	3.2	5.3	1.2	0.0	1.2	3.1-7.2	1.0-3.1	1.8-2.7
Jon Barton	19	7.6	2.5	1.4	0.9	0.0	1.5	2.4-5.6	0.8-2.3	1.9-2.7
Caleb Embeya	19	4.8	4.7	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.6	1.5-3.1	0.2-0.7	1.6-2.4
Chike Ndefo	18	6.3	5.5	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.5	2.0-4.3	0.3-0.9	2.0-3.1
Alex Atkinson	14	3.7	4.6	0.7	0.4	1.6	1.5	1.7-3.7	0.2-0.7	0.1-0.2
Brandon Holmes	8	1.5	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	0.5-1.1	0.1-0.4	0.4-0.6
Mani Sajid	5	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.7-1.6	0.2-0.7	0.1-0.2
Team	200	74.2	35.6	13.0	8.0	3.4	12.6	26.5-60.6	7.3-22.5	13.8-20.6

Every possession played out from each team's shooting, turnovers, rebounding and pace and each player's minutes and usage, 10,000 times. Early season: leans on last season until teams have a few weeks of games.

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