Red Wings at Lightning: Tampa's perfect home mark meets Detroit

Tampa Bay is 6-0-0 at Benchmark International Arena, and that is the story here. The Lightning are 8-3-2 with 18 points, fifth in the East, though they come in 1-3 over their last four after a WLLLW... wait, their last five reads LWLLW, so just two wins in five. Detroit is 7-5-3 with 17 points and sits ninth. The Red Wings are 3-1-2 on the road and went WLWWL over their last five.

The goalies are close in the numbers, and neither is sharp. Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 3.00 GAA and .877 save percentage over 10 games. John Gibson sits at 3.37 and .860 in 10 games. Detroit also plays on a back-to-back.

The Sim likes Tampa Bay at 61%, with Detroit at 39% across 10,000 runs. Its most likely final is Lightning 4, Red Wings 3. The goaltending edge and the Red Wings' tired legs drive that lean.